Projected Public Health Benefits of Increasing Vaccine Coverage for COVID-19 Among Adults ≥ 50 Years of Age in the United States
Author(s)
Joshi K1, Beck E2, Van de Velde N3, Mehta D4
1Moderna, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA, Cambridge , MA, USA, 2Moderna, Inc., Munich, BY, Germany, 3Moderna, Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA, 4Moderna, Inc., Cambirdge, MA, USA
Presentation Documents
OBJECTIVES: COVID-19 vaccine coverage rate (VCR) has declined over time. Childhood VCR have benefitted from the introduction of combination vaccines. Multiple influenza and COVID-19 adult combination vaccines are in development. We aimed to assess the projected public health benefit of increasing COVID-19 VCR in adults ≥50 years of age.
METHODS: A published decision-analytic model was used to predict the public health impact of COVID-19 vaccination over a one-year time horizon (2024-2025) using interim Spikevax Fall 2023 (XBB1.5) effectiveness. COVID-19 incidence was calibrated to observed COVID-19 hospitalizations from October 2023-May 2024. Baseline VCR mirrored observed Fall 2023 COVID-19 uptake in the US. The additional public health benefits of increasing baseline VCR by 5 and 10 absolute percentage points, in addition to matching observed Flu vaccination rates (49.1% for 50-64, 76.6% for 65-74, 73.7% for 75-84, and 73.7% for ≥85 age group) from the 2023-2024 season, compared to no vaccination, was assessed.
RESULTS: The model predicted that, when the COVID-19 VCR was increased by 5% and 10%, per year, there would be an additional 15.7% (85,635) to 31.3% (171,270) of COVID-19 infections averted; 13.1% (13,562) to 26.3% (27,123) of COVID-19-related hospitalizations averted; 13.1% (1,494) to 26.1% (2,987) of COVID-19 related deaths averted; 16.2% (24,664) to 32.4% (49,328) of Long COVID cases averted. When the COVID-19 VCR matched the observed influenza VCR, the model predicted there would be an additional 82.5% (451,483) of COVID-19 infections averted; 76.2% (78,625) of COVID-19-related hospitalizations averted; 75.9% (8687) of COVID-19-related deaths averted; 83.9% (127,824) of Long COVID averted.
CONCLUSIONS: Results from the decision analytical model predicts that increased VCR for COVID-19 lead to substantial reductions in the COVID-19 related burden on the healthcare system. Combination vaccines against both influenza and COVID-19 that could help increase VCR, might help attain the predicted public health benefit.
Conference/Value in Health Info
Value in Health, Volume 27, Issue 12, S2 (December 2024)
Code
CO6
Topic
Clinical Outcomes, Economic Evaluation, Epidemiology & Public Health
Topic Subcategory
Performance-based Outcomes, Public Health, Relating Intermediate to Long-term Outcomes
Disease
No Additional Disease & Conditions/Specialized Treatment Areas, Vaccines