Objective: Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Louisiana (BCBSLA) has been aggregating, analyzing, and forecasting COVID-19 projections for hospitalization, death, and facility capacity. The analytics are routinely shared with Louisiana health partners and assist in policy making and proper allocation of crucial medical resources.

Methods: At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, BCBSLA developed an SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Removed) model for each of the nine health regions in Louisiana. BCBSLA created this model using demographic, clinical and epidemiological inputs sourced from public health organizations, providers, and published literature. BCBSLA implemented the SEIR model to assess impact of different adjustments of the reproduction rate (Rt ranging from 0.2 to 7.8) across regions and over time. The model continues to assist in evaluating counterfactual scenarios (simulate hospital utilization with different preventive restrictions) and anticipate future utilization.

Results: BCBSLA modeling predicted peak periods when Louisiana would be stressed in providing hospital beds to COVID-19 patients, which allowed decision-makers to implement timely policies and redistribute resources effectively. Additionally, vaccination and reinfection factors have been introduced into the prediction modeling in mid-2021 based on newer variants. The BCBSLA modeling approach is relatively parsimonious, making it easy to implement for other U.S. states and regions that seek to apply their own evaluation for COVID-19 health services.

Conclusions: Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Louisiana has proven to be a strong partner in the community during this COVID-19 crisis.