Abstract

Objectives

This study aims to cluster the MENA countries in terms of the shape of their trajectory patterns of mortality related to the leading causes, including communicable diseases, noncommunicable diseases, and injuries. This allows us to distinguish which diseases are the deadliest in what cluster of countries.

Methods

A longitudinal cluster analysis is performed on the annual death counts, which are collected between 2007 and 2023 for the MENA countries. The method enables finding the optimal number of clusters of countries with similar trajectory patterns of mortality related to each category of diseases.

Results

Distinct trajectory patterns of death are identified, and diseases that are the leading causes of fatality in each country are described. Our results point to a concerning health burden expected to be related essentially to neurological conditions, neoplasms, and cardiovascular diseases in specific clusters of MENA countries.

Conclusions

It is argued that rapid increases in death patterns sparked by these causes in the MENA countries require targeted health intervention that deals specifically with how to manage these priority diseases effectively to reverse their expected trend of higher fatalities over time.