OBJECTIVES

Since 1817, cholera has spread throughout the world in 7 major pandemic waves; the current and longest pandemia started in 1961.

Aim of this study is to evaluate the relationship between cholera outbreaks and wellbeing of a country reflected in Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita as an indicator.

METHODS

Study is based on cholera data from WHO (The World Health Organization, https://www.who.int/cholera/en/), and the GDP per capita data from IMF (International Monetary Fund, https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPDPC@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD).

Study population involves all Countries in the world, whose numbers of cholera cases reported in 2016 or 2017 are at least 30.

Linear regression analysis was used to analyze the relationship between outbreak and GDP per capita as independent variables, mortality rate as a dependent variable.

RESULTS

Both two variables have positive effects on target variable mortality as their coefficients are positive (1.53832 for outbreak, 0.000414 for GDP) and their p-values are <0.05.

CONCLUSIONS

GDP per capita has a significant positive effect on target variable mortality. However, other determinants shall be considered.

Outbreak may be caused by a shortage of medical resource and lack of qualified personnel. African Region suffers more than 24% of the global burden of disease and 54% of all cholera cases but has access to only 3% of health workers and less than 1% of the world’s financial resources.

Geographical conditions and clima can facilitate outbreaks. Haiti, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Yemen, Somalia, and the United Republic of Tanzania accounted for 80% of all cases. Intrinsically all of these countries except Haiti border with each other or are located nearby.

Differences can be further explained by under-reporting due to fear of negative impact on travel and trade. Limitations in surveillance systems, inconsistencies in case definitions and lack of laboratory diagnostic capacities may also contribute. Further research is needed.