PROSTATE CANCER MORTALITY TREND IN BRAZIL- A LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2016

Author(s)

Alencar Junior FDO1, Correa JDS1, de Lima AA2, Fernandes RA2
1Sense Company, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, 2Sense Company, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

OBJECTIVES The incidence of prostate cancer varies globally. This epidemiological data is higher in developed countries, mainly due to life expectancy and diagnostic methods. Mortality, however, is influenced by the quality and access to health services. Therefore, poorly developed countries present higher mortality rate due to the malignancy. With the analysis of disease mortality playing an essential role for planning health measures, this study aims to evaluate the temporal trend of prostate cancer mortality rate in Brazil and its regions.

METHODS Mortality data related to prostate cancer in Brazil and its regions were collected from Mortality Information System. Defined variables were geographic region, period and age-adjusted mortality rate using the standardized world population. Linear regression models were performed to verify the mortality trend over time. Time points were defined as: 1981-1990 (A) 1991-2000 (B), 2001-2010 (C) and 2011-2016 (D). The coefficient of determination (R²) was the adjustment quality measure used.

RESULTS In general, the highest mortality rate by prostate cancer in Brazil was 14.61 in 2008, while the lowest rates were seen between 1981 and 1983 (7.76, 7.55 and 7.74, respectively). Analyzing by geographic region, the South and the Northeast presented the highest rates during the evaluated period. In time points A, B, C and D, pooled mortality rates were 10.85, 14.71, 16.20 in the South and 15.15 in the Northeast, respectively. The lowest rates were seen at the Northeast (period A and B: 3.89 and 6.17) and North (period C and D: 9.94 and 13.95) regions. A significant growing trend for the five regions and Brazil was observed (the R² statistic ranged from 0.371 to 0.916; p<0.001). The highest increase was in the Northeast region, with a growth coefficient of 0.412 per year.

CONCLUSIONS The results emphasize the rising prostate cancer mortality rates in Brazil, with a significant growing trend for its regions.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2019-09, ISPOR Latin America 2019, Bogota, Colombia

Value in Health Regional, Volume 20S (October 2019)

Code

PCN32

Topic

Epidemiology & Public Health, Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Modeling and simulation, Public Health

Disease

Oncology, Reproductive and Sexual Health

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