USE OF BOOTSTRAP IN A COST-OF-ILLNESS STUDY TO DERIVE ACCURACY OF ESTIMATES

Author(s)

Wagenpfeil S1, Stammer H2, Neiss A1, Reitberger U3, Goertz A2, 1Institute for Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, Technical University Munich, Munich, Germany; 2SmithKline Beecham Pharmaceuticals, Munich, Germany; 3Kendle International Inc., Munich, Germany

OBJECTIVE: The CODE-2 study provided costs for patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 in Germany. The aim of this analysis is to assess the accuracy of these estimates. METHODS: The German arm of CODE-2 was based on a representative sample of 809 diabetic patients. Treatment strategies, resource use and costs were investigated for the year 1998. Patients were grouped in 5 strata based on their complication status, which was assumed to be the main cost factor. Rare „cost driver“ groups were over-represented in order to obtain higher accuracy of estimates. For extrapolation on a population level, the results were weighted according to real prevalence data on complications estimated in a pre-study. Results were calculated as a weighted average from the mean in each stratum. Because the degree of precision of these estimates was not measurable with the usual statistical methods, bootstrap estimates were computed for lower and upper bounds of 95% confidence intervals taking 10,000 independent bootstrap samples. RESULTS: Bootstrap estimates were stable after 10,000 replicate samples. Average Bootstrapping 95% confidence interval Total costs per patient and year [DM] 5,539 5,184 - 5,894 Total costs for Germany [DM] 21 billion 19,5 -22,5 billion HbA1c 7.84 7.63 - 8.07 Treatment type [%] Diet OAD Insulin 19.4 53.0 27.6 16.7 - 22.1 49.6 - 56.4 24.5 - 30.7 CONCLUSION: Bootstrap confidence intervals show a remarkable accuracy of estimations performed in this study. So combination of a „weighted stratification by cost factor“ followed by bootstrapping estimation is an appropriate method for analysing the average of highly variable parameters such as “costs of diabetes“.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2000-11, ISPOR Europe 2000, Antwerp, Belgium

Value in Health, Vol. 3, No. 5 (September/October 2000)

Code

PDB3

Topic

Economic Evaluation

Topic Subcategory

Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies

Disease

Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders

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