OBJECTIVES: Modern insulin analogues such as insulin aspart (IAsp, NovoRapid) offer benefits in terms of glycemic control, improved hypoglycemic profile and faster onset of action compared to human insulin (HI). A modeling analysis was performed to estimate the long-term economic savings due to reduced complications in Polish type 2 diabetes patients switching to mealtime IAsp from HI basal-bolus therapy, based on results of the European PREDICTIVE study. METHODS: Treatment effects (changes in HbA1c, hypoglycemic event rate and body weight)were derived from PREDICTIVE. Baseline cohort characteristics were taken from published data representative of Polish type 2 diabetes patients and supplemented with trial data. A published and validated diabetes model was used to project long-term outcomes and account costs for patients receiving either mealtime IAsp or HI as part of a basal-bolus therapy, with or without oral antidiabetic agents. Costs were derived from published sources and accounted from a healthcare payer perspective in 2006 Polish Zlotych (PLN). Future economic and clinical outcomes were discounted at 5% annually. RESULTS: Projections indicated that IAsp was associated with improvements in life expectancy of 0.03 years compared to HI (5.12±0.12 versus 5.09±0.12 years). Improved glycemic control with IAsp led to reduced incidence of renal complications, resulting in a mean cost saving of approximately PLN 360 per patient (PLN 2910 versus 3270). Mean cardiovascular complication costs were comparable with both treatments (PLN 5697 versus 5769 per patient) due mainly to a high baseline prevalence in the cohort. Small cost savings were observed in terms of eye, diabetic foot and other complications over patient lifetimes. CONCLUSION: Improvements in HbA1c and body weight associated with IAsp (compared to HI) in PREDICTIVE were projected to lead to long-term cost savings of approximately PLN 480 per patient (PLN 13,423 versus 13,903) due to complications avoided in Polish type 2 diabetes patients.