EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF THE PREDICTIVE PERFORMANCE OF CLASSIFICATION TOOLS IN CORONARY HEART DISEASE – P-COURSE, A NAIVE BAYES TOOL, OUTPERFORMS NOVEL LOGISTIC REGRESSION APPROACHES
Author(s)
Erkki JO Soini, BSc(HE), RN, Researcher1, Paul Blomstedt, MSc, Researcher2, Jussi Lahtinen, BSc, Researcher3, Olli-Pekka Ryynänen, Phd, MD, Professor, docent4, Pekka Kuukasjärvi, MD, Senior Medical Officer, Professor5, Jukka Corander, PhD, Docent21Equal contribution of both first authors. CEPPE and Department of Health Policy and Management, University of Kuopio, Kuopio, Finland; 2 University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; 3 Complex Systems Computation Research Group (CoSCo), Helsinki Institute for Information Technology (HIIT), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; 4 University of Kuopio, Kuopio, Finland; 5 Finnish Office for Health Technology Assessment (FinOHTA), Helsinki, Finland
OBJECTIVES: To empirically evaluate the predictive performance and risk factor identification of P-Course and compare it to logistic regression (LR) using patients screened for the presence of coronary heart disease (CHD). P-Course is a web-based naive Bayes classification (NBC) tool which special feature is its ability to utilize informative priors in model construction. METHODS: 597 CHD-suspected patients underwent coronary angiography. P-Course was compared to various forms of novel LR approaches (full LR, backward stepwise selection using Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) with medically supported interactions). Predictive performance was measured as the proportion of correctly classified patients. The dataset was randomly split into training and test sets. Performance was measured separately for four different sizes of training sets (150, 200, 300, and 450). For each size, the experiment was replicated 20 times to improve accuracy. RESULTS: P-Course outperformed LR approaches: the respective ranges for the average accuracies of P-Course, full LR, stepwise BIC, and BMA with same datasets were 0.78-0.81, 0.70-0.81, 0.70-0.80, and 0.78-0.80. In total splits modeled (N=3000-9000), P-Course predicted correctly on average 63 cases more than the best comparator, BMA. The analyses further illustrate that relevant prior information improves P-Course's accuracy, in particular when the training dataset is relatively small: average accuracies with informative and uninformative priors using training sets of sizes 25-50 were 0.70-0.71 and 0.66-0.68, respectively. In variable screening, P-Course yielded medically sensible choices of variables regarded as the most likely risk factors for CHD. CONCLUSION: In addition to previous work done with P-Course (e.g., Naïve Bayesian Fusion and decision rationality analysis), this analysis demonstrated the tool's additional value in comparison to the LR approaches. When the estimation of e.g. propensity scores or adverse events is of concern, NBC can offer additional predictive value compared to LR. In medicine, even one unnecessary faulty prediction is too much.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2007-10, ISPOR Europe 2007, Dublin, Ireland
Value in Health, Vol. 10, No. 6 (November/December 2007)
Code
PCV72
Topic
Clinical Outcomes, Methodological & Statistical Research, Real World Data & Information Systems, Study Approaches
Topic Subcategory
Clinical Outcomes Assessment, Health & Insurance Records Systems, Modeling and simulation, Registries
Disease
Cardiovascular Disorders
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