ASSESSMENT OF LONG-RUN ECONOMIC BENEFITS ASSOCIATED WITH IN-VITRO FERTILIZATION (IVF) FUNDING DECISIONS- A SIMPLIFIED LIFETIME TAX CALCULATION
Author(s)
Mark P Connolly, MSc, MHE, Director, Pricing and Pharmacoeconomics1, Stijn Hoorens, MSc, Policy Analyst2, Federico Gallo, PhD, Mathematical modeler2, William Ledger, MA, DPhil, Professor of Obstetrics and Gynaecology & Head of Unit31Ferring International Center, Saint-Prex, Switzerland; 2 RAND Europe, Cambridge, United Kingdom; 3 University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom
OBJECTIVES: Globally there is considerable variation in public funding for IVF treatments. IVF is unique amongst health interventions because its success leads to human life. In light of this uniqueness we apply a Generational Accounting approach, an accepted method used by tax authorities, to assess whether publicly funded IVF represents sound fiscal policy. Our assessment considers future lifetime net tax contributions to the British government (taxes paid minus transfer payments) attributed to a successful IVF birth. METHODS: Net present value (NPV) calculations were applied to the average cost per successful IVF conceived live birth (£12,931 in 2005), lifetime direct cash transfers and lifetime future tax contributions discounted using established Treasury department rates. We assume the following: full-time education aged 6-19; full-time employment aged 20-68 (Pension Commission, 2005); education costs, child-tax credits, and pension contributions increase with inflation. Age-specific income was adjusted for inflation over time, and we allowed expected income to vary with age. Current government tax revenues of 35.5% gross income were held constant. RESULTS: Based on average life-expectancy the model indicates an individual born in 2005 returns a lifetime positive NPV to the government of £160,069 with a break-even point (ie. where the NPV becomes positive) at age 31. A child with similar characteristics, but conceived using IVF, has a lifetime NPV of £144,000 with a break-even point at age 33. Sensitivity analysis indicated that these results are sensitive to assumptions about the working age interval, inflation rate, discount rate, and increasing age related health costs. CONCLUSION: Despite modelling limitations, we conclude that under reasonable assumptions IVF costs are relatively insignificant vis-à-vis other costs and benefits to government. While the model does not forecast the full economic benefits associated with investment in IVF, it does demonstrate the potential long-term financial returns of improved access to IVF services.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2007-10, ISPOR Europe 2007, Dublin, Ireland
Value in Health, Vol. 10, No. 6 (November/December 2007)
Code
ES7
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Cost-comparison, Effectiveness, Utility, Benefit Analysis
Disease
Reproductive and Sexual Health