USING SIMULATIONS TO EXPLORE THE INFLUENCE OF COMPETING RISK ON TREATMENT-EFFECT

Author(s)

David M Kent, MD, MS, Assistant Professor1, Rodney A Hayward, MD, Professor21Tufts-New England Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA; 2 University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

OBJECTIVES: In previous work, we explored through computer-aided simulated clinical trials how heterogeneity of baseline risk can lead to heterogeneity of treatment-effect under a variety of assumptions. We now explore how heterogeneity of competing risks affect treatment-effect heterogeneity under a variety of assumptions. METHODS: Using simulated clinical trials in which the intervention has a constant effect on disease-specific risk (odds ratio = 0.7) but no effect on competing risk and in which outcomes in individuals are determined by varying 2 parameters: (1) the overall risk of the outcome of interest and (2) the ratio between the competing risk and the disease-specific (i.e. treatment-responsive) risk. RESULTS: Under conditions in the simulations, the odds ratio of the treatment-effect on the overall outcome is highly dependent on the ratio of the competing and disease-specific risk, decreasing as this ratio increases. Although the absolute treatment-effect increases with increasing overall risk, the odds ratio for the treatment decreases as the overall risk increases (holding constant the ratio between disease-specific and competing risk). When disease-specific outcomes are measured, a similar relationship between treatment-effect and overall risk is observed, although the decrease in the odds ratio with increasing risk is greatly attenuated. Detecting significant treatment-effect heterogeneity (on the odds ratio scale) based on competing risk is likely to occur only when competing risk is very high or when patients can be sub-grouped by variables which distinguish between disease-specific and competing risk. CONCLUSION: The ratio of competing risk to disease-specific risk in a population can have an important impact on the measured treatment effect, even when disease-specific outcomes are measured. Detection of competing-risk-based treatment-effect heterogeneity may depend on the identification of risk factors that differentiate disease-specific from competing risk. Simulations can be useful to anticipate the magnitude of these effects when planning a clinical trial.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2006-10, ISPOR Europe 2006, Copenhagen, Denmark

Value in Health, Vol. 9, No.6 (November/December 2006)

Code

MC3

Topic

Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Modeling and simulation

Disease

Multiple Diseases

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