COMPARING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GERMAN DIABETES POPULATION WITH RESPECT TO LONGTERM OUTCOMES USING DATA FROM THE DETECT STUDY AND THE EAGLE DIABETES SIMULATION MODEL

Author(s)

Elvira Mueller, PhD, MPH, Director1, Stefan Walzer, MA, Analyst1, Lars Pieper, Dipl-Psych, scientific assistant2, Jens Klotsche, Dipl-Math, scientific assistant2, Elmar Stridde, MD, Senior Medical Advisor31Analytica International, Loerrach, Germany; 2 Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany; 3 Pfizer Pharma GmbH, Karlsruhe, Germany

OBJECTIVES: Based on the type 2 diabetes cohort of the DETECT study (Curr Med Res and Opinion; 2005; 21/4: 619-29) simulations with the EAGLE Diabetes Model (Diab Technology & Therapeutics; 2006; 8/2: 219-36) were conducted. Development of long-term complications was compared with respect to different treatment targets for HbA1c. Additionally, the outcome for a mixed patient population typically for a general practice was assessed. METHODS: The Economic Assessment of Glycemic Control and Longterm Effects (EAGLE) model simulates long-term effects of diabetes treatment and related costs. Baseline characteristics of the simulation cohorts corresponded to type 2 patients of the DETECT study with HbA1c >9%: age 63±11 years, diabetes duration 9±7 years, 49% male, hypertension prevalence 71%, mean HbA1c 10,1±1,3%. Three cohorts with different HbA1c targets were defined: a) no change; b) 8%; and c) 6.4%. A fourth cohort was composed of 25% patients with target a) 60% target; b) and 15%; and target c). All cohorts achieve respective targets within one year followed by a yearly increase of 0.2%. Simulations were run with 1000 patients over 10 years. RESULTS: The relative risk reduction comparing cohort b versus no change was 19% (MI); 17% (stroke); 12% (PAD); 7% (prolif. retinopathy); and 4% (ESRD). A treatment target according to the German diabetes guideline (c versus a) resulted in reductions of 30%, 27%, 20%, 11%, and 6%, respectively. Analysing the mixed cohort demonstrated that treatment effects were similar to the results of cohort b. CONCLUSIONS: The simulations based on a German diabetes population demonstrate the long-term effects of various treatment targets for HbA1c. Although a steady re-increase of HbA1c values was assumed a significant reduction in micro- and macrovascular events can be achieved. Simulations of a mixed cohort correlate to real world patient groups and could be used for cost estimations in practice settings.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2006-10, ISPOR Europe 2006, Copenhagen, Denmark

Value in Health, Vol. 9, No.6 (November/December 2006)

Code

PDB29

Topic

Health Service Delivery & Process of Care

Topic Subcategory

Treatment Patterns and Guidelines

Disease

Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders

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