CASE STUDY OF PATTERN MIXTURE APPROACH FOR COMBINING COMPLETION RATES AND EFFICACY FOR CLINCALLY MEANINGFULL OUTCOMES IN SCHIZOPHRENIA DRUG TRIALS

Author(s)

Rabinowitz J Bar Ilan University, Ramat Gan, Israel

The last observation carried forward (LOCF) analysis overlooks the meaningfulness of dropout in clinical trials. For antipsychotic medication dropout is an important outcome since long-term treatment is often required and dropout may relate to lack of drug tolerability. OBJECTIVE: The current analysis applies the “pattern mixture” approach (Shih & Quan, 1997) in which a composite hypothesis is tested that consists of the probability that there is a difference in completion rates (d) between two drugs and the probability that there is a difference in efficacy of complete cases (e) [ p = p(d) x p(e) x (1- ln( p(d) x p(e) ]. METHODS: The pattern-mixture approach was applied to data from a 53-week randomized, open-label non-inferiority efficacy trial of risperidone long-acting injectable (RLAI) vs. olanzapine tablets (OLA) in treating schizophrenia (n=618) (data on file JNJ). RESULTS: LOCF had found a significant difference (p=.04) on percent of patients in each group who attained clinical improvement (20% improvement on PANSS total) favoring RLAI and no significance on difference in the continuous measure of change in PANSS total (p=0.83). Among completers there was a greater decline on change in PANSS total favoring RLAI (Ris –23.6(±14.4); Ola –21.9 (±18.0); 1-tailed p=0.105). 76% of the RLAI treated patients completed the trial as compared to 70% of the OLA treated patients (one-tailed p=0.087). Using the pattern mixture approach the probability for the combined hypothesis of a difference in efficacy in complete cases, and trial completion, was significant (p=0.05). On clinical improvement ,66.1% of RLAI group both completed the trial and improved as compared to 53.7% of the olanzapine group (Odds Ratio [95% Confidence interval]: 1.84 [1.20:2.82]). CONCLUSIONS: LOCF may not capture real-life, clinically important differences which can be captured by other approaches.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2005-11, ISPOR Europe 2005, Florence, Italy

Value in Health, Vol. 8, No.6 (November/December 2005)

Code

PMH36

Topic

Clinical Outcomes, Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Clinical Outcomes Assessment, Modeling and simulation

Disease

Mental Health

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