OBJECTIVES: This study aims to estimate burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, and quantify impact of reducing modifiable risk factors in Taiwan.

METHODS: A burden of disease model was developed to estimate (1) the burden of IHD and stroke among people aged ≥20 years; and (2) the impact of reducing modifiable risk factors (including tobacco use, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, obesity and physical inactivity) in accordance with World Health Organization (WHO) targets. Review of literature and government publications was conducted to generate model inputs that include a population forecast, disease and risk factor prevalence, CVD event rates, disease-related mortality and costs. Direct costs to the public health care system and indirect costs from lost productivity due to hospitalizations and premature mortality were included.

RESULTS: The number of people with IHD and stroke in Taiwan is projected to increase from 478,988 in 2017 to 730,632 in 2035 (average IHD:stroke ratio for prevalence=53%:47%). The number of deaths due to IHD and stroke would increase from 14,947 in 2017 to 27,101 in 2035 (average IHD:stroke ratio for deaths=63%:37%). The economic burden would increase from NTD$33 billion in 2017 to NTD$64 billion in 2035 (average IHD:stroke ratio for costs=53%:47%). Efforts to achieving the WHO risk factor targets would save from 108 lives and total costs of NTD$247 million in 2017 to 1,749 lives and NTD$4.3 billion in 2035.

CONCLUSIONS: The burden of IHD and stroke in Taiwan is significant and growing. Efforts to achieve five WHO risk factor targets would alleviate the burden.