DEVELOPMENT OF AN ALCOHOL POLICY MODEL THAT PREDICTS LIFE YEARS, QALYS, AND HEALTH CARE COSTS ACCOUNTING FOR ALCOHOL USE DISORDER IDENTIFICATION TEST

Author(s)

Lewsey J, Leelahavarong P, Briggs A
University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK

OBJECTIVES: To develop an alcohol policy model that predicts life years (LYs), quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and healthcare costs using the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) screening tool and other risk factors. Further, to transfer the developed model into a Thai setting. METHODS: The Scottish Health Surveys from 1995-2012 were linked to Scottish morbidity records and death records for the period 1981-2013. Parametric survival analysis was used to estimate the hazard risks of first alcohol-related and non-alcohol related hospitalisation and death. For men and women separately, multivariable regression analyses were applied for modelling utility score, risks of subsequent hospitalisation and annual health care costs within the follow-up period. The risk profiles were modelled using the covariates of age, socio-economic status, health condition, alcohol drinking, smoking, body mass index and physical activity. A health-state transition model with annual cycle length was developed using outputs from analyses to predict LYs, QALYs and lifetime health care costs. RESULTS: The sample size of the cohort was 46,230. The modelling showed that increasing AUDIT score and cigarettes per day were associated with an increased risk of first alcohol-attributable hospitalisation. Predicted outcomes for a male aged 30 years with high risk drinking levels (AUDIT > 7) were worse than for low risk drinking (AUDIT ≤ 7), with approximately 5 and 7 years LY and QALY lost, respectively. The corresponding results for females show for high risk drinking (AUDIT > 4) compared to low risk drinking (AUDIT ≤ 4), approximately 10 and 12 years LY and QALY lost, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The developed policy model framework could be used for further economic evaluation of alcohol interventions and other health behaviour interventions, and the model can be transferred to the Thai and other country settings.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2016-09, ISPOR Asia Pacific 2016, Singapore

Value in Health, Vol. 19, No. 7 (November 2016)

Code

CU4

Topic

Epidemiology & Public Health, Health Technology Assessment

Topic Subcategory

Decision & Deliberative Processes, Public Health

Disease

Gastrointestinal Disorders, Mental Health, Multiple Diseases

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