DERIVATION AND EXTERNAL VALIDATION OF AN EARLY READMISSION RISK PREDICTION MODEL

Author(s)

Dorajoo SR1, See V1, Chan CT1, Tan ZY2, Koomanan N3, Ong TT4, Razak SM4, Yap CW1, Chan A1
1National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore, 2Khoo Teck Puat Hospital, Singapore, Singapore, 3Singapore General Hospital, Singapore, Singapore, 4Temasek Polytechnic, Singapore, Singapore

OBJECTIVES: Early readmissions place a considerable, yet potentially avoidable, strain on tertiary healthcare resources. However, accurately identifying subgroups of patients who are both at risk of early readmissions but yet stand to benefit from preventive interventions, still remains a challenge. We therefore aimed to develop and externally validate a 15-day readmission risk prediction model to address this unmet need.  METHODS: A case-control analysis was performed on patients discharged from Khoo Teck Puat Hospital between January and March 2013. Cases were patients who experienced unplanned readmissions within 15 days of discharge. Multivariate logistic regression was used to derive a classification model. Temporal and geographical validation were performed between August and September 2015 at Khoo Teck Puat Hospital and Singapore General Hospital, respectively. Model discrimination was ascertained using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.  RESULTS: Number of medications prescribed at discharge [odds ratio (OR): 1.06, 95% confidence interval (CI):1.01-1.12], discharge to a nursing home (OR: 3.57, 95% CI:1.57 – 8.34), discharging against medical advice (AOR: 5.05, 95% CI:1.20 – 21.23), age (OR: 1.02, 95% CI:1.01–1.03) and a prior diagnosis of malignancy (OR: 3.37, 95% CI:1.16 - 9.80), peptic ulcer disease (OR:3.05, 95% CI:1.12-8.26), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR: 3.16, 95%CI:1.12 - 8.05) and anemia (OR: 2.08, 95% CI: 1.15 - 8.05) independently predicted 15-day unplanned readmission risk. This model has a sensitivity of 55.6%, specificity of 70.7% and ROC of 0.65 on temporal validation [n=101, 9 readmitted (8.9%)]. On geographical validation, model displays a sensitivity of 57.5%, specificity of 60.9% and an ROC of 0.64 [n=520, 73 readmitted (14.0%)]. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed 15-day readmission risk prediction model showed reasonable discriminative power using information that is easily available during discharge. The model can assist hospitalists in selectively administering preventive interventions at patients who are most likely to benefit from these initiatives.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2016-09, ISPOR Asia Pacific 2016, Singapore

Value in Health, Vol. 19, No. 7 (November 2016)

Code

HC4

Topic

Economic Evaluation

Topic Subcategory

Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies

Disease

Multiple Diseases

Explore Related HEOR by Topic


Your browser is out-of-date

ISPOR recommends that you update your browser for more security, speed and the best experience on ispor.org. Update my browser now

×