CONSTRUCTION OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL FOR MEDICAL CARE SYSTEM OF JAPAN
Author(s)
Inoue S1, Xu H2, Maswana J2, Kobayashi M1
1CRECON Medical Assessment Inc., Tokyo, Japan, 2University of Tsukuba, Tokyo, Japan
Presentation Documents
OBJECTIVES: Japan has been facing dramatic changes with the aging population and soaring medical care expenditure. Responding to this situation, it has been urged to reform the medical care system for efficient use of limited medical care resources. The objectives of this research are to construct a system dynamics (SD) model to estimate the future medical care expenditure and to address the dynamic issues of the health care that should be overcome. METHODS: The SD model was constructed by referring to existing models and mainly consisted of three variables; namely per capita medical care expenditure, population, and annual medical care expenditure. The parameters of the model were drawn from relevant articles and official database of Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Japan’s population projections were sourced from the estimates of the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Total medical care expenditure was first calculated by age-groups and subsequently summed up as total medical care expenditure. The time period of the simulation was set from FY 2010 to FY 2030. Last, the SD model was constructed by using iThink® (isee systems, USA). RESULTS: Annual total medical care expenditure in FY 2030 was estimated as 70.2 trillion yen (T yen) ( CONCLUSIONS: As a result of the simulation, annual total medical care expenditure was estimated to be 1.9 times in 20 years under current setting. Impact of the spread of generic drugs usage and the change of disease prevalence are required to be assessed in the next phase of our study.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2016-09, ISPOR Asia Pacific 2016, Singapore
Value in Health, Vol. 19, No. 7 (November 2016)
Code
PHP33
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies
Disease
Multiple Diseases