A COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC MODEL FOR DEMENTIA- DIAGNOSIS, DISEASE PROGRESSION AND SERVICE DELIVERY

Author(s)

Thokala P1, Brennan A1, Lafortune L2, Brayne C2
1University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK, 2University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

OBJECTIVES: Dementia is a very important concern in most countries due to increase in ageing population. In order to support efficient resource allocation, there is a need for a comprehensive economic model to allow accurate prediction of health and care demand for dementia patient.  METHODS: A comprehensive dementia model that can address diagnosis, disease progression and service delivery issues is highlighted in this presentation. A systematic review of existing dementia models was performed and data extraction was performed on the studies evaluating pharmacological interventions and diagnostic interventions. Expert opinion was sought in developing the dementia model – in particular, advice on the appropriate conditions to include in the model, key data sources and literature. Conceptual modelling was performed to finalise the structure of the model before programming in modelling software. The model was subjected to internal and external validation to ensure the robustness in predicting dementia outcomes.  RESULTS: The systematic review identified 69 relevant articles evaluating pharmacological interventions and diagnostic interventions and data extraction was performed on these studies. Based on this review, Alzheimer’s disease and vascular dementia were included within the ‘dementia’ model. The model is an individual patient-level simulation model and uses mini–mental state examination (MMSE) scores to model disease progression. Institutionalisation and mortality was also modelled. Transition probabilities were modelled based on published literature. The model incorporates diagnosis, disease progression and service delivery aspects of the patient pathway. The model takes a lifetime perspective, estimating the impact of interventions on costs, clinical outcomes, survival and quality-adjusted life years. CONCLUSIONS: The dementia model indicates that early diagnosis may not be cost effective, given the current evidence. The key drivers include the accuracy of the diagnosis and the effectiveness of dementia interventions. The model is highly flexible and has broad potential application to evaluate different diagnostic strategies and pharmacological/non-pharmacological interventions in dementia.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2016-09, ISPOR Asia Pacific 2016, Singapore

Value in Health, Vol. 19, No. 7 (November 2016)

Code

PRM28

Topic

Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Modeling and simulation

Disease

Mental Health

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