OBJECTIVES: Estimate the expenditure in hospital services for cardio-vascular (CVD), malignant tumors (MT) and diabetes financed by Seguro Popular (SP) for 2004-2012 in order to evaluate its midterm financial sustainability. METHODS: Hospital costs for interventions financed by SP for year 2012. Related hospital discharges from the SAEH for 2004-2012. Multiplication of both data generated the cost per ICD-10. The product was then grouped by GBD. Total hospital expenditure for SP, obtained from SINAIS for 2004-2012, was distributed using the cost per GBD. Then the proportion of hospital expenditure related to CVD, MT and diabetes is estimated. RESULTS: Mexico is one of the countries with the highest prevalence of child and adult overweight and obesity (O&O). That situation imposes a great pressure into SP to face an increasing demand of health care for non-communicable chronic diseases (NCD) particularly diabetes, MT and CVD. The average annual hospital expenditure of these groups of diseases represents about USD$273.4 million in 2012 (9.7% of hospital expenditure). Malignant tumors that contributed the most were breast and cervical cancer with 90% of the total expenditure for this group. Acute myocardial infarction represents 66% of total expenditure for cardio-vascular. Under the status quo an increase of 65% in the cost of this group of diseases is expected for 2018. CONCLUSIONS: Findings show an increased financial burden for SP generated by the selected NCD. The impact on the public budget that represents this level of hospital expenditure would threaten the sustainability of the SP if current trends hold. Given the demographic transition and level of O&O as risk factors for developing NCD in the coming years it is necessary to strengthen prevention and health promotion to reduce both new cases of NCD and complications in order to decrease their future impact on the SP budget.