CALIBRATION OF PIECEWISE MARKOV MODELS USING A CHANGE-POINT ANALYSIS THROUGH AN ITERATIVE CONVEX OPTIMIZATION ALGORITHM
Author(s)
Alarid-Escudero F, Enns E, Peralta-Torres YE, Maclehose R, Kuntz KM
University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
OBJECTIVES: Relative survival represents cancer survival in the absence of other causes of death. Cancer Markov models often have a distant metastasis state, a state not directly observed, from which cancer deaths are presumed to occur. The aim of this research is to use a novel approach to calibrate the transition probabilities to and from an unobserved state of a Markov model to fit a relative survival curve. METHODS: We modeled relative survival for newly diagnosed cancer patients through a piecewise Markov model. For each segment we used a constant transition matrix with three cancer states: 1) no evidence of disease, 2) metastatic recurrence and 3) cancer death. We estimated the optimal time points at which the slope of the cumulative hazard changes using a free-knot spline model. We calibrated the transition probabilities using a two-step iterative convex optimization (TICO) algorithm. The dynamics of the disease can be defined as xt+1= xtA, where xt+1 is the state vector that results from the transformation given by the monthly transition matrix A
Conference/Value in Health Info
2015-09, ISPOR Latin America 2015, Santiago, Chile
Value in Health, Vol. 18, No. 7 (November 2015)
Code
PRM14
Topic
Methodological & Statistical Research
Topic Subcategory
Modeling and simulation
Disease
Oncology