OBJECTIVES: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is estimated to infect 350 million people all over the world. Most infection with HBV do not induce clinical liver disease, while less than 30% of them develop severe liver disease. We do not know, however, the approximate number of the annual newly HBV infection and/or HBV development in Japan. Then, we make Markov model with HBV infection and estimate annual probability to disease development. METHODS: We reviewed clinical research paper related to HBV infection published in Japan until December 2011. To research Japanese original data, we used ‘Igaku Chuo Zasshi’ (Japanese medical journals database), and Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare research database. We then extracted some parameters (e.g., patients outcome, treatment, time horizon) and calculated annual probability of disease development.  RESULTS: We made HBV infection model and estimate annual probability to disease development from 22 eligible Japanese research papers and reports. The HBV Markov model started from HBs antigen negative, then HBV infection, divided into 2 columns (asymptomatic career, acute hepatitis) and so on. Each columns annual probability were detected from clinical trial data in Japan. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated HBV infection and related diseases progress probability by one-year in Japan. We will estimate the cost of each diseases treatment, patient’s quality of life, and then we will make Japanese HBV Markov model near future.