THE HEALTH AND ECONOMIC IMPACT OF A QUADRIVALENT HUMAN PAPILLOMAVIRUS VACCINE (6/11/16/18) IN COLUMBIA- A TRANSMISSION DYNAMIC MODEL-BASED EVALUATION

Author(s)

Kothari S*1;Nwankwo C1;Pillsbury M1;Shcheprov A2, Posso H3 1Merck & Co., Whitehouse Station, NJ, USA, 2Reveille Technologies Inc., Durham, NC, USA, 3Nueva Granada University, Bogatá, Colombia

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the potential impact of a quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) (6/11/16/18) vaccine for the prevention of cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 2 and 3 (CIN2/3), CIN1 and genital warts in Colombia. METHODS: We adapted a previously developed transmission dynamic model (Elbasha & Dasbach; 2010) to evaluate the health and economic consequences of routine vaccination of nine year old girls in a dynamic Columbian population over the course of 100 years. We calibrated the model to the observed data of the crude incidence and mortality of cervical cancer, and genital warts attributable to HPV 16/18 and 6/11 respectively. The model assumed 85% vaccine coverage rate. RESULTS: At 50 years the model shows cumulative reduction in HPV 16/18 related cervical cancer cases and deaths by 18.1% and 13.9% respectively, and cumulative reduction in the CIN2/3 and HPV 6/11 related CIN1 cases by 46.9% and 59.9% correspondingly. At year 100, the vaccination reduces the annual incidence of HPV 6/11/16/18 related cervical cancer, deaths, CIN2/3 and CIN1 cases by about 99%. At 50 years the model shows 99.5% and 98% reduction in the annual incidence of HPV 6/11 related genital warts cases in females and males respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In Colombia, a quadrivalent HPV vaccination program for 9 year old girls can significantly reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, CIN and genital warts.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2013-09, ISPOR Latin America 2013, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Value in Health, Vol. 16, No. 7 (November 2013)

Code

PIN11

Topic

Economic Evaluation

Topic Subcategory

Cost-comparison, Effectiveness, Utility, Benefit Analysis

Disease

Infectious Disease (non-vaccine), Vaccines

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