COMPARING THE USE OF DYNAMIC AND STATIC INFECTIOUS DISEASE MODELS IN LATIN AMERICA WITH NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE, ASIA AND OTHER REGIONS.

Author(s)

Vargas-Palacios A1, Stevenson M1, Dueñas A2, Wailloo A11The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, South Yorkshire, United Kingdom, 2IÉSEG School of Management - Lille-Paris, PARIS LA DEFENSE, Paris, France

OBJECTIVES: To establish whether there are differences in the type of methodology (static or dynamic) used to assess the cost-effectiveness of vaccination programmes between Latin America and other regions of the world. METHODS: A systematic review from 1950 to 2010 of the cost-effectiveness of vaccine interventions was performed. Modelling methodologies were categorised as static where the number infected was not related to the number infectious, and where herd immunity (an immunity that occurs when the vaccinated proportion of the population provides protection to unprotected individuals) was not incorporated. Models were categorised as dynamic otherwise. Static models were sub-classified into Decision trees (DT) and static Markov models (sMM); dynamic models were sub-classified into dynamic Markov models (dMM), System dynamics including Susceptible, Exposed, Immune and Recovered models (SD), Discrete event simulation (DES) and Agent-based models (ABM). RESULTS: 310 relevant studies were found. 251 (81%) adopted a static approach (131 sMM and 120 DT) whilst 59 (19%) used a dynamic approach (52 SD, 3 DES, 3 ABM and 1 dMM). The majority of papers were set in Europe (120, 39%) and North America (97, 31%), with 26 (8%) in Latin America, 37 (12%) in Asia and 30 (10%) in other regions. The proportion of models that were dynamic within Latin America (23%) compared favourably with North America (15%), Europe (26%), Asia (8%) and the remaining regions (15%). However, two of the six dynamic studies undertaken in Latin America used modellers based in Europe or North America. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the limitations associated with static models these are more prevalent than dynamic methodologies when modelling the cost-effectiveness of vaccine interventions. This conclusion was applicable to all regions, with the results for Latin America comparable with other regions. This systematic review suggests that worldwide education of researchers in the advantages of dynamic methodologies is needed.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2011-09, ISPOR Latin America 2011, Mexico City, Mexico

Value in Health, Vol. 14, No. 7 (November 2011)

Code

RM1

Topic

Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Modeling and simulation

Disease

Infectious Disease (non-vaccine), Multiple Diseases, Vaccines

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