TAX LOSSES AND GAINS ATTRIBUTED TO SMOKING CESSATION APPLYING A TAIWAN PUBLIC ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE

Author(s)

Connolly M1, Kotsopoulos N2, Yang M3
1University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands, 2Global Market Access Solutions, Mooresville, NC, USA, 3National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan

OBJECTIVES: Conventional economic analyses excludes important economic gains attributed to smoking cessation therapy. In addition to smoking-attributable mortality and morbidity from quitting smoking, there is an established relationship between smoking and reduced productivity and wage effects. In this prototype analysis we assess how public investments in smoking cessation that changes smoking prevalence can influence future government tax revenue and social transfer costs in Taiwan. METHODS: A modified generational accounting framework was developed to assess relationships between smoking attributed morbidity and mortality and public economic consequences including lifetime tax revenue gains/losses and government social transfers and health spending. Based on the current prevalence of smoking in Taiwan, a cohort model was developed for smokers, former-smokers and non-smokers. The model simulated the lifetime discounted fiscal transfers for different age cohorts in five year age bands, and the benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of smoking cessation investments. Comparable models were built for males and females based on 2016 Taiwanese dollars (NTD). RESULTS: For different age cohorts of male smokers, those who quit smoking had an average increase in lifetime earnings of NTD127,150 ranging from NTD202,000 for those aged 25-30, and NTD28,500 for those aged 61-65. The average present value of additional lifetime tax was NTD24,350, with difference of NTD32,775 in lifetime health costs between smokers and former smokers. The average lifetime earnings loss and average tax gains in females was NTD108,680, and NTD20,810, respectively. The BCR ratio based on treatment costs ranged from 1.13 – 1.36 for male smokers. Similar BCR ratios were identified for female smokers. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that lifetime tax revenue gains are greater from investments in smoking cessation compared with the tobacco tax revenue loss in those aged 25 – 65 in males and females. Lifetime tax revenue gains were greater in younger aged persons indicating that early intervention offers more fiscal benefits.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2017-05, ISPOR 2017, Boston, MA, USA

Value in Health, Vol. 20, No. 5 (May 2017)

Code

PRS30

Topic

Economic Evaluation

Topic Subcategory

Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies

Disease

Multiple Diseases, Respiratory-Related Disorders

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