THE COMPARISON OF CARDIOVASCULAR INCIDENCE PREDICTIONS IN TYPE 1 DIABETES UTILIZING ALTERNATIVE RISK PREDICTION MODELS

Author(s)

Foos V1, Lamotte M2, McEwan P3
1IMS Health, Zaventem, Belgium, 2IMS Health, Vilvoorde, Belgium, 3Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd, Cardiff, UK

OBJECTIVES: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models (RPMs) are available for the general population (Framingham) and for type-2-diabetes (T2D) (e.g. UKPDS-68 and 82) which may not be appropriate in type-1-diabetes (T1D). The IMS-CORE-Diabetes-Model (CDM) has recently been updated to include three novel CVD RPMs specific to T1D populations based on data from the Epidemiology-of-Diabetes-Interventions-and Complications-study (EDIC), the Pittsburgh-Epidemiology-of-Diabetes-Complications-Study (PEDC) and the Swedish-National-Diabetes-Register (SNDR). The objective of this study was to contrast model predictions for CVD incidence utilizing three T1D RPMs (EDIC, PEDC and SNDR) and compare those to published incidence from the EDIC study.  METHODS: The CDM was applied to project the incidence of myocardial-infarction (MI), stroke, heart-failure (HF) and ischemic-heart-disease (IHD) utilizing three alternative CVD RPMs, the EDIC-RPM, PEDC-RPM and SNDR-RPM. The risk profile of a newly diagnosed T1D population (age 21 years, HbA1c 7%, systolic-blood-pressure 114 mmHg, body-mass-index 32 Kg/m2, high-density-lipoprotein 45 mg/dl and total-cholesterol 170 mg/dl) was projected over 30 years. Total CVD was assessed as the sum of MI, IHD and stroke incidence to match the EDIC-CVD composite end point.   RESULTS: Applying the EDIC-RPM for a newly diagnosed T1D individual resulted in 30-year cumulative incidence of 4.84%, 0.74%, 4.93% and 0.73% for MI, stroke, IHD and HF, respectively. This compared 5.80%, 1.04%, 7.39% and 1.30% utilizing PEDC-RPM and 7.44%, 1.22%, 8.57% and 0.73% utilizing SNDR-RPM. The total composite cumulative incidence of predicted CVD was 10.50%, 14.23% and 17.23% for EDIC-RPM, PEDC-RPM and SNDR-RPM respectively, which compares to 8.70% CVD incidence observed during the EDIC study.   CONCLUSIONS: The CDM closely reproduced the published EDIC-CVD incidence when using the EDIC-RPM. The higher CVD incidence estimated via PEDC-RPM and SNDR-RPM may be reflective of equations derived from routine clinical practice.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2016-05, ISPOR 2016, Washington DC, USA

Value in Health, Vol. 19, No. 3 (May 2016)

Code

PRM85

Topic

Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Modeling and simulation

Disease

Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders

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