IMPACT OF SINGLE RISK FACTOR CHANGES ON LONG-TERM OUTCOMES AND COST IN A TYPE 2 DIABETES MODELING STUDY CONTRASTING PROJECTIONS WITH UKPDS68, SWEDISH NATIONAL DIABETES REGISTRY AND THE ADVANCE RISK EQUATIONS

Author(s)

McEwan P1, Lamotte M2, Foos V3
1Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd, Cardiff, UK, 2IMS Health Consulting, Brussels, Belgium, 3IMS Health, Basel, Switzerland

OBJECTIVES: Previous studies have investigated changes in risk factor (RF) variables on cost and outcomes in the IMS-CORE-Diabetes-Model (CDM) using UKPDS-68 (UK-68-RE) and UKPDS-82 risk equations (UK-82-RE). The objective of this study was to project health benefits and total lifetime costs (TLC) associated with a range of selected RF changes utilizing UK-68-RE versus recently implemented RE within the CDM: the Swedish-National-Diabetes-Registry (S-NDR) and the ADVANCE-Risk-Engine (ARE). METHODS: The CDM was applied to project the lifetime benefits (life years (LYs), quality adjusted life years (QALYs)) and TLC ($US) associated with baseline RF changes for HbA1c (+/-1%), body-mass-index (BMI) (+/-1 Kg/m), systolic-blood-pressure (SBP) (+/-20 mmHg), total-cholesterol (TC) (+/-10 mg/dl), (high-density-lipoprotein (HDL) (+/-5 mg/dl) and low-density-lipoprotein (LDL) (+/-10 mg/dl). An intermediate risk type-2 diabetes cohort (age 52 years, HbA1c 8%, SBP 140 mm-Hg, BMI 30 Kg/m2, HDL 50 mg/dl and LDL 150 mg/dl) was projected over lifetime to explore the sensitivity of discounted (3%) LYs, QALYs and TLC per unit RF variation. RESULTS: When UK-68-RE were applied, projected changes in LYs were: 0.096, 0.045, 0.013, 0.071, -0.183 and 0.0 and QALYS: 0.156, 0.067, 0.065, 0.051, -0.121 and 0.0 for RF variations in HbA1c, SBP, BMI, TC, HDL and LDL, respectively. This compared to changes of 0.103, 0.032, 0.004, 0.070, -0.195, 0.044 (LYs) and 0.150, 0.049, 0.054, 0.050, -0.132, 0.025 (QALYs) utilizing S-NDR-RE and 0.103, 0.030, 0.001, 0.065, -0.093, 0.0 (LYs) and 0.163, 0.057, 0.056, 0.048, -0.062, 0.0 (QALYs) utilizing ARE-RE. TLC decreased by $3'479, $1'065, $69, -$414, $1'263, $0, (UK-68-RE); $2'829, $852, $81, -$289, $910, -$347 (S-NDR-RE ) and $3'488, $1'196, -$10, -$182, $694, $0 (ARE-RE) for RF variations in HbA1c, SBP, BMI, TC, HDL and LDL, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The degree to which RF changes are translated into benefits and costs may change considerably dependent on the choice of selected risk equations.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2015-05, ISPOR 2015, Philadelphia, PA, USA

Value in Health, Vol. 18, No. 3 (May 2015)

Code

PRM37

Topic

Economic Evaluation, Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies, PRO & Related Methods

Disease

Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders

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