CONTRASTING THE RELATIVE RISK REDUCTION OF CARDIOVASCULAR EVENTS IN THE CORE DIABETES MODEL ASSOCIATED WITH SINGLE RISK FACTOR CHANGES ACROSS ALTERNATIVE RISK ENGINES- UKPDS68, UKPDS82 AND SWEDISH NATIONAL DIABETES REGISTRY EQUATIONS

Author(s)

Foos V1, Lamotte M2, McEwan P3
1IMS Health, Basel, Switzerland, 2IMS Health Consulting, Brussels, Belgium, 3Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd, Cardiff, UK

OBJECTIVES: The degree to which predefined risk factor (RF) changes alter life time benefits and costs in projections with the IMS-CORE-Diabetes-Model (CDM) has been previously reported. The objective of this study was to contrast the relative risk reduction of cardiovascular events by individual RF changes using alternative risk equations (RE), specifically: UKPDS-68 (UK68-RE), UKPDS-82 (UK82-RE) and the  Swedish-National-Diabetes-Registry (SNDR-RE). METHODS: The CDM was applied to estimate annual probabilities for 1st myocardial infarction (MI), 1st stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and heart failure (HF) for an intermediate risk type 2 diabetes individual (age 55 years, HbA1c 8%, SBP 140 mm-Hg, BMI 30 Kg/m2, TC 250 mg/dl, HDL 50 mg/dl and LDL 170 mg/dl). The relative risk (RR) in association with unit RF changes was determined for HbA1c (-1%), body-mass-index (BMI) (-1 Kg/m), systolic-blood-pressure (SBP) (-10 mmHg), total-cholesterol (TC) (-10 mg/dl), (high-density-lipoprotein (HDL) (+5 mg/dl) and low-density-lipoprotein (LDL) (-10 mg/dl). RESULTS: The RR of CV endpoints associated with risk factor changes for HbA1c, SBP, BMI, TC, HDL and LDL was predicted as follows. MI:  0.89, 0.90, 1.00, 0.98, 1.36, 1.00 (UK-68-RE), 0.93, 0.95, 1.00, 1.00, 1.00, 0.93 (UK82-RE) and 0.92, 0.92, 1.00, 0.99, 1.29, 0.98 (SNDR-RE). Stroke: 0.88, 0.76, 1.00, 0.99, 1.18, 1.00 (UK68-RE), 0.91, 0.84, 1.00, 1.00, 1.00, 0.97 (UK82-RE) and 0.85, 0.94, 1.00, 0.99, 1.18, 1.00 (SNDR). IHD: 0.85, 0.89, 0.94, 1.00, 1.00, 1.00 (UK68-RE), 1.00, 0.94, 1.00, 1.00, 1.21, 0.96 (UK82-RE) and 0.94, 1.00, 0.98, 0.99, 1.29, 1.00 (SNDR-RE). HF: 0.88, 0.91, 1.00, 0.98, 1.48, 1.00 (UK68-RE), 1.00, 1.00, 0.93, 1.00, 1.00, 0.98 (UK82-RE) and 0.83, 0.83, 0.94, 0.99, 1.19, 1.00 (SNDR-RE). CONCLUSIONS: The degree to which RF modification influences CV risk can vary considerably, dependent on RE selected.  The choice of equation within a model may influence the predicted health economic benefit associated with CV risk factor modification.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2015-05, ISPOR 2015, Philadelphia, PA, USA

Value in Health, Vol. 18, No. 3 (May 2015)

Code

PRM73

Topic

Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Modeling and simulation, PRO & Related Methods

Disease

Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders

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