ASSESSING THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF A UNIVERSAL ROTAVIRUS VACCINATION PROGRAM FOR THE PHILIPPINES USING A DYNAMIC TRANSMISSION MODEL
Author(s)
Lam HY1, Wu DB2, Rivera AS1, Alejandria MM1, Velasco GN3, Sison OT1, Ladia MA1, Mantaring Jb1, Santillan M4
1University of the Philippines Manila, Manila, Philippines, 2Monash University Malaysia, Subang Jaya, Malaysia, 3Department of Health Philippines, Manila, Philippines, 4Philippine Health Insurance Corporation, Pasig City, Philippines
OBJECTIVES: Evaluate the cost-effectiveness of universal rotavirus vaccination of children below age of five years old in the Philippine setting METHODS: We developed an age-stratified dynamic transmission model which compared four settings (baseline of no vaccine with 34% exclusive breastfeeding rate (EBR), two-dose monovalent vaccine (RV1), three-dose pentavalent vaccine (RV5), and no vaccine with 80% EBR) in the Philippine population over a 5-year time horizon. Model parameters such as cost and vital statistics were Philippine specific and other parameters such as vaccine efficacy and utility were extrapolated from literature. Univariate one-way and multivariate probabilities sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Compared to baseline, the model showed that vaccination could lead to significant reduction in rotaviral morbidity and mortality in the 0 to <5 age group as well as inducing herd immunity in the older groups. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) of vaccination versus baseline from a societal perspective were US$ 13,184/DALY for RV1 and US$ 11,836/DALY for RV5; these are higher than the the current government cost-effectiveness threshold equal to the Philippine GNI per capita of US$ 3,134. Comparing 80% EBR to baseline, ICER is US$ 256,417/DALY. ICERs were sensitive to changes in case fatality, proportion of diarrhea cases due to rotavirus, and vaccine efficacy. The vaccine was cost-effective in less than 10% of 5000 Monte Carlo simulations. We estimated cost-effective prices of US$ 2.85/dose RV1 and US$ 1.96/dose RV5 which were lower than the current price of US$ 9.85/dose RV1 and US$ 6.43/dose RV5. CONCLUSIONS: Despite herd immunity benefits, universal vaccination using either RV1 or RV5 is unlikely to be cost-effective, at current tendered prices, for the Philippine setting, despite the herd immunity benefits. It might be due to comparatively low case-fatality rates. Current prices need to be decreased around 70% to achieve cost-effectiveness.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2015-05, ISPOR 2015, Philadelphia, PA, USA
Value in Health, Vol. 18, No. 3 (May 2015)
Code
PGI22
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Cost-comparison, Effectiveness, Utility, Benefit Analysis
Disease
Gastrointestinal Disorders, Infectious Disease (non-vaccine)