OBJECTIVES: To model total health care costs on end-stage renal disease adult patients with and without an usual source of care provider and to evaluate whether these costs differ between dialysis and transplant patients.  METHODS: Retrospective cross-sectional data from 197 unique adult patients was collected for years 2002 to 2011 using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey conducted on American households. Total cost for renal disease patients was modeled using the Bayesian mean regression posterior estimates and was followed by computing predictive values for a new set of observations. Total cost comprised of total costs for office based expenditures, prescription drugs, home health care, inpatient care, outpatient care, emergency room visits and costs associated with equipment and medical supplies. RESULTS: Among the 197 end-stage renal disease patients, 43% underwent dialysis and 22% underwent transplantation. Overall for the end-stage renal disease adults, the mean annual costs of care for a patient with an usual source of care provider vs. without an usual source of provider was $28,807 vs. $20,851. In comparison, the mean annual cost of care for a transplant patient without a usual source of care was $19,464 and for a dialysis patient was $92,326. Transplant patients with a source of care provider can potentially save 23% in annual total cost in comparison to patients without any source of care; dialysis patients can save 56% of total cost annually.  CONCLUSIONS: Transplant and dialysis patients having an usual source of care provider incurred less health expenditures. In renal disease patients, having an usual source of provider has possibly large implications for health care cost savings.