THE IMPACT OF HUMAN PAPILLOMAVIRUS VACCINE IN TAIWAN- A TRANSMISSION DYNAMIC MODELLING APPROACH
Author(s)
Wen Y1, Chang S1, Chou T1, Wu H1, Lin YJ1, Fann SJ2, Chou H3, Chang CJ1
1Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, Taiwan, 2Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan, 3Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan, Taiwan
OBJECTIVES: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the general sexually transmitted disease. This study is to predict the infected cases after HPV vaccination policy implemented in Taiwan. METHODS: The 5 years epidemiologic consequences of HPV vaccination was estimated via a transmission dynamic approach based on a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. The required epidemiological parameters were obtained from the database in Taiwan’s Health and Welfare Data Science Center and available public sources. The moderate-term epidemiologic consequences of non-vaccinated and vaccinated were estimated and compared. The differential equations were solved with the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method that is implemented in R Statistical Software. RESULTS: Compare to those non-vaccinated, 9-valent vaccine will decrease incidence of HPV infections in different age groups (15-19, 20-29, 30-39, and 40-59 years old) among high sexual active female populationover 5-year horizon is 54.5, 64.2, 60.7, and 56.6 per 100,000 female respectively. There will be more female in non-vaccinated group suffer cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 1 (CIN1) in different age groups among high sexual active female population than in vaccinated group. However, the incidence increases moderately along year. The incidence of CIN1 decreases in vaccinated group in each aged groups. However, for CIN2/3 the incidence increases in 30-60 years old high sexual active female population by year not matter HPV vaccine is given or not. The incidences at the 5th-year increase 2.2 times to 22.0 times from the 1st-year in all aged group. There is no different incidence between non-vaccinated and vaccinated for cervical cancer in each age group.
CONCLUSIONS: The result from this model suggests that HPV vaccination can protect female avoid suffering HPV infection and CIN1 in Taiwan.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2017-11, ISPOR Europe 2017, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Vol. 20, No. 9 (October 2017)
Code
PRM86
Topic
Methodological & Statistical Research
Topic Subcategory
Modeling and simulation
Disease
Oncology, Reproductive and Sexual Health