OBJECTIVES: In August 2016, guidelines for conducting Health Technology Assessment in Poland were updated. Since then, the Agency for Health Technology Assessment and Tariff System (AOTMiT) has required manufacturers to conduct a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) or provide an adequate justification for lack of it. The objective of this review is to assess whether current decisions made by AOTMiT depend on the results of PSA.

METHODS: Submissions from 1 August 2016 up to 26 May 2017 with AOTMiT assessment reports and recommendations of the President of AOTMiT were identified and analysed, if probabilities of cost-effectiveness were publically available. If several probabilities were provided, appropriate ranges were used and graphically presented.

RESULTS: A total of 32 submissions were identified within the analysed timeframe. PSA was performed in 21 (65.5%) cases and justification for lack of PSA in pharmacoeconomic analysis was only presented in 3 out of 11 (27%) remaining cases. Finally, only 14 out of 21 submissions were taken into consideration, since probability of cost-effectiveness was undisclosed in the 7 remaining cases. The recommendation of the President of AOTMiT was positive in 5 and negative in 9 cases. To assess a relationship between the PSA outcomes and recommendation character, the results were plotted on a graph.

CONCLUSIONS: It can be assumed that technologies with a probability of being cost-effective lower than 30% tended not to be recommended. However, this analysis should be treated with caution as it was limited by a small number of appraisals with PSA results available. There is a need for greater transparency of PSA outcomes to assess their role in the decision-making process in Poland. To assess a correlation between results of PSA and character of the recommendation of the AOTMiT President, more samples need to be reviewed and analysed.