LIFETIME RISK OF REVISION FOLLOWING JOINT REPLACEMENT- EVIDENCE FROM ROUTINELY-COLLECTED DATA
Author(s)
Burn E1, Arden NK2, Edwards C3, Cooper C3, Murray D1, Prieto-Alhambra D1, Pinedo-Villanueva R1
1Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK, 2Arthritis Research UK Centre for Sport, Exercise and Osteoarthritis, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK, 3MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effect of age, gender and diagnosis (osteoarthritis, OA, or rheumatoid arthritis, RA) on the lifetime risk of revision following total knee and hip replacement (TKR and THR). METHODS: Individuals who received TKR or THR were identified using primary care linked to hospital records in England (CPRD-HES). Based on ten-year follow-up, parametric survival models were specified with age, gender and diagnosis included as explanatory variables and distributions chosen on the basis of AIC. While risk of revision was extrapolated, risk of mortality was assumed to revert to population lifetables after ten years. These competing risks were combined using a Markov model to estimate lifetime risk of revision. RESULTS: CONCLUSIONS: Lower age at surgery and being male is associated with a higher lifetime risk of revision following both TKR and THR. Risks for OA and RA were not significantly different. These findings will help inform shared decision making.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2017-11, ISPOR Europe 2017, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Vol. 20, No. 9 (October 2017)
Code
PMS2
Topic
Clinical Outcomes, Epidemiology & Public Health
Topic Subcategory
Relating Intermediate to Long-term Outcomes, Safety & Pharmacoepidemiology
Disease
Musculoskeletal Disorders