OBJECTIVES: The Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) was created in 2010 to pay for oncology indications that were not approved by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and were not routinely available within the NHS in England. After a consultation process, it was agreed that from July 2016, NICE will appraise all new licenced cancer indications and decide whether they are eligible for inclusion in the CDF, which will become a ‘managed access fund’ This research estimates the number of current CDF indications that may be eligible for the new CDF following its reform. METHODS: As of November 2015, there were 48 medicines/indications on the CDF. Information on these products was combined with data from historical NICE technology appraisals (TAs), published October 2007-December 2015, and from other sources. We used a simple set of rules to predict the funding category to which each indication would be assigned: (1) funded for routine commissioning; (2) funded on the new CDF for a limited period; and (3) not funded. RESULTS: Of the 48 current CDF medicines/indications, 3 (6%) were likely to receive positive NICE appraisal and therefore enter routine commissioning, and 67% (n=32/48) were judged to fall into the ‘not funded’ category. The remaining 13 may have the potential to be funded temporarily through the new CDF. CONCLUSIONS: This research suggests that the recent reform to the CDF may lead to a substantial decline in the number of cancer medicines available to patients in England. However, it remains to be seen exactly how NICE Appraisal Committees will interpret the new guidance, and the nature of the managed access contracts and data collection processes that will be forged between manufacturers and NHS England.