OBJECTIVES: The epidemiologic information on cancers are generally reported in terms of incidence. However, prevalence data are complementary to estimate the burden of the disease on the healthcare system. The objective of this model was to estimate the incidence and prevalence of patients suffering from multiple myeloma (MM) from 2016 to 2020, according to the treatment line and to the hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) status. METHODS: An epidemiological model was developed from incidence rate since 1990, relapse rate after a first line and a second-line treatment (based on overall and progression free survival observed in clinical trials). This exponential survival model allowed to estimate yearly the incidence, the prevalence, and the number of patients joining a second or third line and more of therapy. RESULTS: The incidence of MM was expected to be 5,178 in 2016 and 5,485 in 2020, a 5,9% increase in 4 years. Excluding patients not needing treatment, 4,525 patients were expected to receive a first-line treatment in 2020 including 3,538 treated only by drugs therapy and 987 by drugs therapy+HSCT. The number of patients requiring a second line and a third-line or more of chemotherapy was respectively expected to be 1,635 and 1,579 in 2020 (+12.9% vs 2016). Overall, 6,752 patients would initiate a new MM chemotherapy in 2020. The prevalence of treated MM patients is expected to increase from 27,121 in 2016 to 30,263 in 2020 (+11.6%) all lines and HSCT status considered. Among them, 21,479 patients would be treated by chemotherapy (+12.6% vs 2016) including 12,124 patients in first line, 3,042 in second line and 6,313 patients in third line and more. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of MM would increase in the future, but the prevalence increase rate would be even higher. This could be explained partly by the new effective drugs which improve MM patients survival.