DENGUE NEGATIVELY AFFECTS GDP AND FEDERAL REVENUES IN ENDEMIC AREAS OF MEXICO

Author(s)

Samaniego R, Aburto C
Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico

OBJECTIVES:  Empirical research on the impact of the incidence of dengue on various aggregate economic indicators using Mexican states and municipal data was undertaken to 1) measure the monetary effect of reductions in the incidence of dengue on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of each state, 2) estimate the impact of changes in the GDP of each state on the collection of federal taxes and 3) model various scenarios of reductions of the incidence of dengue and its effect on the number of foreign tourists in the 20 most visited municipalities of Mexico. METHODS:  Based on econometric time series regression models we obtained 1) estimates of the effect of the incidence of dengue on GDP for each state, 2) assessments of the incidence of dengue on federal tax revenues collected in each state, and 3) further calculations of the effect of a reduction in the of dengue incidence on the number of foreign tourists in the top 20 Mexican tourist destinations. RESULTS:  1) The incidence of dengue on GDP by state for 1996-2015 had the expected negative sign. The weighted average elasticity was -0.027, 2) the estimates of the incidence of dengue on federal tax revenue by state result in a weighted average elasticity of -0.011, and 3) the elasticity of the incidence of dengue on the number of foreign tourists in the top 20 tourist destinations in Mexico had an average elasticity of -0.0177. CONCLUSIONS:  Dengue incidence negatively affects a broad range of socioeconomic variables in Mexico. The results obtained are a promising complement to traditional measurements of the costs of dengue. Additional studies are required to expand our analyses.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2016-10, ISPOR Europe 2016, Vienna, Austria

Value in Health, Vol. 19, No. 7 (November 2016)

Code

PIN64

Topic

Economic Evaluation

Topic Subcategory

Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies

Disease

Infectious Disease (non-vaccine)

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