A PATIENT LEVEL SIMULATION MODEL

Author(s)

Gharibnaseri Z1, Davari M1, Cheraghali A2, Eshghi P3, Ravanbod R4, Spendar R1
1Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran (Islamic Republic of), 2Baghyatollah Medical Sciences University, Tehran, Iran (Islamic Republic of), 3Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran (Islamic Republic of), 4Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran (Islamic Republic of)

Understanding how treatment outcomes differ among individuals with heterogeneous characteristics is critical in creating simulation models that are closer to reality. Although Markov structures can be designed in such a way to reflect these differences, the unavoidable increase in model complexity can be seen as a disadvantage to using such models. Another limitation of Markov chains is the fact that these models are developed by defining discrete states of health supported by literature on patients’ transitions from one state to another. However, in real practice, patients’ health states usually represent a continuous spectrum rather than discrete health states. In this paper, we present a patient level model which has overcame these shortcomings using patient centered outcomes. This model was used for performing a cost-effectiveness analysis on alternative treatment protocols in haemophilia patients. Cross sectional data on patient’s characteristics, health status and quality of life was gathered and transformed to longitudinal data using the simulation model. Accumulated costs and health outcomes during patients’ adulthood was calculated and compared in both treatments. The presented model can be adjusted to other settings and chronic diseases.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2016-10, ISPOR Europe 2016, Vienna, Austria

Value in Health, Vol. 19, No. 7 (November 2016)

Code

PRM224

Topic

Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Confounding, Selection Bias Correction, Causal Inference

Disease

Systemic Disorders/Conditions

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