THE EXPECTED VALUE OF SAMPLE INFORMATION FROM THE PHARMACEUTICAL PERSPECTIVE UNDER CONDITIONS OF VALUE BASED PRICING

Author(s)

Watson P*, Brennan A University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom

OBJECTIVES: To modify the traditional framework for conducting ENBS, which is not compatible with drug development in the pharmaceutical industry. METHODS: We modify the traditional framework for conducting ENBS and make it more relevant to the pharmaceutical industry. Traditional approaches to ENBS value trials according to the expected benefits to society and the price of the intervention is assumed to be fixed. We use expected profit forecasts to value trials and assume that the price of the drug is variable and conditional on the trial outcomes. Value Based Pricing (VBP) is a pricing strategy where drug prices are generated in a CE model according to the cost-per-QALY threshold. We use this criterion to determine price. We assume that there is a threshold price below which the company would not market the new intervention and would receive zero profits. The expected price varies as different trial characteristics are simulated. A case study in which the sample size and trial duration are varied in a Phase III trial for Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE). For each trial design we sampled 1000 trial outcomes. VBP was estimated for each simulated trial using a SLE CE model. Expected profit of the trial is estimated by averaging across all trial samples. ENBS is calculated as the expected profits minus the costs of the trial. RESULTS: A clinical trial with longer follow-up generated greater ENBS than a shorter trial with larger sample size. There is large variation in the expected profits for the clinical trials. CONCLUSIONS: ENBS can be adapted to value clinical trials in the pharmaceutical industry to optimise the expected profits. However, the analyses can be very time-consuming to run for complex CE models.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2013-05, ISPOR 2013, New Orleans, LA, USA

Value in Health, Vol. 16, No. 3 (May 2013)

Code

PRM91

Topic

Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Modeling and simulation

Disease

Musculoskeletal Disorders

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