ESTIMATED PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACT OF NATIONWIDE VACCINATION OF INFANTS WITH 7-VALENT PNEUMOCOCCAL CONJUGATE VACCINE (PCV7) IN CHINA

Author(s)

Hu S*1;Roberts CS2;Du L3;He JJ3, Shi Q4 1Shanghai Health Development Research Center, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China, 2Pfizer, New York, NY, USA, 3Shanghai Health Development Research Center, Shanghai, China, 4Pfizer China, Shanghai, China

OBJECTIVES: To apply national demographic and epidemiologic data in China to a mathematical model designed to estimate the public health impact of PCV7 at a population level.  METHODS: Demographic data were collected from 2008 census .The incidence rate of all-cause hospitalized pneumonia and pneumococcal meningitis was searched from international literature. Data were applied to a 10-year Markov model to estimate the impact of vaccination on those diseases. Projections of the diseases over a 10-year period are estimated under assumptions of no vaccination and full vaccination of the national birth cohort. Details of the model calculations as applied to the United States were published elsewhere. RESULTS: According to model estimation, over 730,000 cases of pneumococcal meningitis and over 100 million cases of pneumonia that would occur in unvaccinated children and adults in China over a 10-year period, as well as causing over 5.3 million deaths. More than 30 million cases and 420,000 deaths would occur in children under 5 years of age. The inclusion of universal vaccination of infants with PCV7 was expected to reduce the overall burden by 5.5 million cases, largely due to the reduction in all-cause pneumonia, with nearly 2 million cases of pneumonia estimated to be reduced in children under 5 years old. CONCLUSIONS: Widespread use of PCV7 in China is expected to have a significant impact on hospitalizations and death due to all-cause pneumonia and meningitis in vaccinated children.The potential impact of widespread use of PCV7 on unvaccinated persons due to herd protection adds to the overall public health impact significantly.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2013-05, ISPOR 2013, New Orleans, LA, USA

Value in Health, Vol. 16, No. 3 (May 2013)

Code

PRM85

Topic

Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Modeling and simulation

Disease

Infectious Disease (non-vaccine), Vaccines

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