RANKING OF DISEASE-MODIFYING THERAPIES FOR MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS
Author(s)
Fogarty E1, Schmitz S2, Walsh C3, Barry M1
1National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics, Dublin, Ireland, 2Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland, 3University of Limerick, Limerick, Ireland
OBJECTIVES: Relapses and disability progression are the clinical hallmarks of MS and the two most commonly assessed endpoints for therapeutic interventions in clinical trials. For many patients relapses are the initial defining feature of MS. However, the accumulation of disability has the greatest long-term clinical, social and economic impact on patients and society. This study evaluated the comparative efficacy of disease-modifying therapies for multiple sclerosis and ranked each therapy based on probabilities of being among the best treatments for each outcome. METHODS: A network meta-analysis was conducted within a Bayesian framework to estimate comparative annualised relapse rates (ARR) and risks of disability progression (defined by both a 3-month, and 6-month confirmation interval). Cumulative ranking analysis, using the Surface Under the Cumulative RAnking curve (SUCRA) method, provided a ranking of treatments for each outcome. RESULTS: Alemtuzumab and natalizumab had the highest SUCRA scores for ARR (>90%) and disability progression confirmed after three months (>80%), while IFN β-1a 30mcg ranked lowest among active treatments for these outcomes. Ranking of treatments was affected by the definition of disability progression largely due to the conflicting results of IFN β-1b 250 mcg, ranking among the most efficacious treatments for disability progression confirmed after six months (>90%) and among the least efficacious for disability progression confirmed after three months (<50%). Alemtuzumab and natalizumab both scored relatively highly for disability progression confirmed after six months. Notable variation in ranking across outcomes was observed for fingolimod (>70% for ARR, <50% for the disability progression outcomes). CONCLUSIONS: The magnitude of treatment effects and associated uncertainty varied between DMTs, and across outcomes. While natalizumab and alemtuzumab demonstrated consistently high ranking for both relapse and progression, with older interferon-beta and glatiramer acetate products ranking lowest, variation in disability progression definitions lead to variation in the relative ranking of treatments.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2015-11, ISPOR Europe 2015, Milan, Italy
Value in Health, Vol. 18, No. 7 (November 2015)
Code
PND11
Topic
Clinical Outcomes
Topic Subcategory
Comparative Effectiveness or Efficacy
Disease
Neurological Disorders