POTENTIAL HEALTH AND ECONOMIC IMPACT OF INTRODUCING A DENGUE VACCINE IN MALAYSIA- ASSESSMENT USING DYNAMIC TRANSMISSION MODELLING
Author(s)
Yeo HY1, Shafie AA1, Coudeville L2, Steinberg LD3, Gill BS4, Jahis R4
1Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, Malaysia, 2Sanofi Pasteur, Lyon, France, 3Sanofi Pasteur, Petaling Jaya, Malaysia, 4Ministry of Health Malaysia, Wilayah Persekutuan Putrajaya, Malaysia
OBJECTIVES: Malaysia is experiencing an escalation of dengue epidemic activity. The candidate vaccine currently at the most advanced stage of development has demonstrated its efficacy in two large scale efficacy studies. This study aims to estimate the potential health and economic impact of the vaccine in Malaysia under different vaccination strategies. METHODS: A dengue dynamic transmission mathematical model was employed to evaluate the impact of dengue vaccination program on the incidence, mortality and economic burden of the disease. The model was calibrated and validated with Malaysia specific epidemiological data and vaccine efficacy data from phase-III efficacy studies. The impact was evaluated over a 10-year period from provider perspective. Two vaccination strategies, targeted-hotspots (THS, covered population in 6 selected hotspot districts) and nationwide (NW, covered the whole Malaysian population), were simulated. Both strategies comprised of routinely vaccinated children aged 13 and a catch-up cohort from ages 14 to 30 who were vaccinated over a 1 year duration. Probabilistic and univariate sensitivity analyses on key parameters were conducted to examine uncertainty in the model. All costs were expressed in 2013 USD. RESULTS: The cost per dengue case from provider perspective was USD999.02. The model predicted that dengue vaccination under the THS strategy would prevent 448,124 [95%CI: 292,875; 632,375] dengue cases, 509 [95%CI: 335; 707] dengue-related deaths, 11,785 [95%CI: 7,888; 16,329] life years lost and 16,751 [95%CI: 11,128; 23,281] DALYs. Nationwide vaccination would prevent 1,060,222 [95%CI: 694,181; 1,490,929] dengue cases, 1,202 [95%CI: 797; 1,672] dengue-related deaths, 27,834 [95%CI: 18,756; 38,501] life years lost and 39,584 [95%CI: 26,464; 54,968] DALYs. The total dengue treatment cost saved for THS and NW vaccination strategy were USD163,859,846 [95%CI: 109,093,124; 235,805,776] and USD386,962,641 [95%CI: 257,410,189; 557,347,377] respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that dengue vaccination would significantly reduce the disease and economic burden in Malaysia, especially if it is introduced during current dengue epidemic.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2015-11, ISPOR Europe 2015, Milan, Italy
Value in Health, Vol. 18, No. 7 (November 2015)
Code
PIN39
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies
Disease
Infectious Disease (non-vaccine)