CONSTRUCTION OF SIMULATION TECHNIQUES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF OPTIMAL CERVICAL CANCER SCREENING STRATEGIES- EXPERIENCE OF UKRAINE
Author(s)
Soloviov S1, Artemchuk H1, Kovalyuk O1, Dzyublyk I1, Dutchak I2
1PL Shupyk National medical academy of postgraduate education, Kyiv, Ukraine, 2The National Technical University of Ukraine “Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Kyiv, Ukraine
OBJECTIVES: Cervical cancer (СС) is one of the world’s deadliest forms of cancer. Incidence rates for CC during the previous decade showed increasing trend in Ukraine , taking nowadays the 2nd place of cancers among women of reproductive age. From an economic point of view screening strategies are evaluated through cost-effectiveness analysis. Different variations of cervical screening strategies are implemented all over the world, but their expected effectiveness for Ukrainian population are not assessed. METHODS: Markov model for natural history of CC was designed to analyze cost-effectiveness criteria of cytological and HPV testing as main tools for primary triage of women with the given precursors of CC. It describes natural transitions (solid arrows) and artificial transitions (dashed arrows) between health states, which occur as a result of diagnostic or treatment. Laboratory tests data of 1257 cervical smears from Ukrainian women (HPV and cytological testing) formed the basis for model construction. The evaluation of transition matrix was performed with data on current diagnosis and treatment of CC precursors. Obtained transition matrix was recalculated, normalized, and formed the basis for the development of simulation-optimization techniques, based on Markov model for natural history of CC. RESULTS: Simulation-optimization techniques were designed for assessment of optimal screening intervals for women depending on patient’s previous medical history and age. Such techniques aim to minimize the average cost-effectiveness ratio (CER), recalculate natural and artificial probabilities, and also optimal coverage of certain test as measure of CC morbidity and mortality control on every cycle (year of life) of Markov model. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides simulation-optimization techniques for development of cervical screening recommendations under the data of Ukraine. According to the results of the modeling, the optimal screening strategy depends on previous medical history and age individually. Our further aims include development of specialized software, which is based on described above techniques.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2015-11, ISPOR Europe 2015, Milan, Italy
Value in Health, Vol. 18, No. 7 (November 2015)
Code
PRM43
Topic
Economic Evaluation, Methodological & Statistical Research
Topic Subcategory
Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies, Modeling and simulation
Disease
Infectious Disease (non-vaccine), Reproductive and Sexual Health