A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW OF RISK PREDICTION MODELS FOR MORTALITY, COMPLICATIONS AND DIABETES OUTCOMES AFTER BARIATRIC SURGERY

Author(s)

Zhang R1, Borisenko O1, Telegina I1, Hargreaves J2, Ahmed AR3, Sanchez Santos R4, Pring C5, Funch-Jensen P6, Hedenbro J7
1Synergus AB, Stockholm, Sweden, 2Covidien (UK) Commercial Ltd, now part of Medtronic, Hampshire, UK, 3Imperial College London, London, UK, 4Hospital of Pontevedra, Pontevedra, Spain, 5St Richards Hospital, West Sussex, UK, 6Aarhus University and Aleris Hamlet Hospital Aarhus, Aarhus, Denmark, 7Aleris Obesity & Lund University, Lund, Sweden

OBJECTIVES: The objective of the study was to provide a comprehensive overview of existing risk prediction models of mortality, complications, and remission of diabetes after bariatric surgery. METHODS: A systematic literature review was performed in Medline, Medline-In-Process, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) databases in April 2015. All English language full-text published derivation and validation studies for risk prediction models focusing on safety and diabetes outcomes of bariatric surgery were included. Two reviewers independently performed screening of the studies. Data extraction included population, outcomes, variables, intervention, model discrimination, and calibration. RESULTS: Of the 2331 studies retrieved from the search, only 25 studies met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 20 presented development of risk prediction models/scores, and five reported validation of existing models. Six models were each developed to predict mortality (in-hospital, at 30 days, 90 days, and ten years), complications (during perioperative, at 30 days, and 90 days), and remission of type 2 diabetes (post-operative, and at one year); and two models developed to predict both mortality and complications (at 30 days). Internal validation using bootstrap resampling or tenfold validation was reported for six models, while five models had external validation using independent patient cohorts: ABCD score (remission of type 2 diabetes at one year), DiaRem Score (remission of type 2 diabetes at one year), Gupta’s model (remission of type 2 diabetes at one year), Maciejewski’s model (complication at 90 days), and OS-MRS (mortality at 90 days). Models included on average 6.9±3.5 variables (range 2-13). Calibration and discrimination statistics were not reported for all models.  CONCLUSIONS: There are a variety of risk prediction models for safety and diabetes outcomes of bariatric surgery available. However, only few models have undergone external validation. Further research about the value and accuracy of existing instruments in clinical practice is required.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2015-11, ISPOR Europe 2015, Milan, Italy

Value in Health, Vol. 18, No. 7 (November 2015)

Code

PSY24

Topic

Epidemiology & Public Health

Disease

Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders

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