EXTENDED COX MODEL ANALYSIS WITH NON-PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS APPLIED IN REAL-WORLD OBSERVATIONAL DATA

Author(s)

Ji X1, Gao X2, Baddley JW3, Chambers R4, Solem CT1, Stephens JM11Pharmerit International, Bethesda, MD, USA, 2Pharmerit, Bethesda, MD, USA, 3University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA, 4Pfizer, Inc., Collegeville, PA, USA

OBJECTIVES: To illustrate the application of an extended Cox regression model with time-dependent treatment effects to real-world observational data. METHODS: A retrospective US hospital database analysis was conducted among adult invasive aspergillosis (IA) patients receiving their first antifungal therapy during ICU stay. To assess the initial antifungal treatment effect on survival/LOS, a survival analysis was conducted with event defined as “discharged alive”, censored being “expired in hospital”, and time variable being treatment-initiation-to-discharge (DITD). Key demographic, clinical and treatment variables were included. Regimen A was the reference group and compared to regimen B (inactive against IA, possibly indicating a treatment delay). Proportional hazard assumptions for the treatment variable were assessed by the Schoenfeld residuals significance test. When significant, treatment-by-time interaction together with its main effects were included within an extended Cox model to account for the proportional hazard violation. Multiple functional forms for time were considered in treatment-by-time interactions. Due to the lack of direct SAS output for specific time points, time-specific hazard ratios (HR) between treatments were manually calculated incorporating both main effects and time covariates. RESULTS: A continuous linear treatment-by-time interaction was constructed for Drug B since the null hypothesis of Schoenfeld test was rejected. Consistent with an increasing time-interaction effect (HR=1.032, p<0.0001), HR of drug B increased over time: Drug B patients were 57% less likely (HR=0.43, p=.0001) to be discharged alive compared to Drug A at mean switch time to other IA-active drugs (9 days), and 27% less likely (HR=0.73, p=0.0297) to be discharged alive at mean DITD (25 days).  Hazards would be equivalent (HR=1) at day 35, although by then most patients on regimen A (81%) had switched/been discharged. CONCLUSIONS: The extended Cox model can be implemented as an adjustment for the proportional hazard violation in observational data analysis to obtain unbiased survival results.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2012-06, ISPOR 2012, Washington, D.C., USA

Value in Health, Vol. 15, No. 4 (June 2012)

Code

PIN67

Topic

Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Confounding, Selection Bias Correction, Causal Inference

Disease

Infectious Disease (non-vaccine)

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