OBJECTIVES: To predict the future incidence of chronic hepatitis C in Russia and assess potential impact of the available antiviral therapies (pegylated interferon a-2a/a-2b or standard interferon a-2b combined with ribavirin) on long-term morbidity and mortality rates in the population of newly diagnosed Russian patients with chronic hepatitis C. METHODS: Based on the national epidemiologic data and published natural history studies, the prognostic Markov model was developed. Depending on the results of antiviral therapy, patients’ flows over 25-year time frame were simulated. End points of interests included: the incidence of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and cumulative time that patients will spend in each state, the number of patients, who will require liver transplantation, and HCV-related mortality rates. RESULTS: During years 2013-2017 about 276,000 new cases of chronic hepatitis C will be diagnosed in Russia. After 25 years since being diagnosed 130, 189 and 227 of 1,000 patients received pegylated interferon a-2a, pegylated interferon a-2b and standard interferon a-2b, respectively, will develop compensated cirrhosis. The cumulative time that patients will spend in compensated cirrhosis state will be 848, 1,218 and 1,482 patient-years, respectively. During the established time frame, there will be expected 25, 36 and 43 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma and 35, 51 and 62 HCV-related deaths. 28, 40 and 49 patients, respectively, will require liver transplantation. CONCLUSIONS: The findings from the present study provide the opportunity to plan volumes of medical care that will be required to Russian patients with chronic hepatitis C during 25 years since disease was first diagnosed. The treatment with pegylated interferon alfa-2a is considered the most preferable strategy due to considerably lower long-term morbidity and mortality rates as compared to pegylated interferon a-2b and standard interferon a-2b treatment.