MODELING TRANSFORMED HEALTH CARE COSTS WITH UNKNOWN HETEROSKEDASTICITY

Author(s)

Baser O1, Yuce H21STATinMED Research / University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA, 2STATinMED Research / City University of New York, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

Objectives: Log models are widely used to deal with skewed outcomes, such as health care costs. They improve precision of estimates and diminish the influence of outliers. Smearing estimation suggested in literature only works with homoskedastic or heteroskedastic errors due to categorical variables. Generalized linear models (GLM) have been proposed as an alternative to deal with any kind of heteroskedasticity but recent literature shows that log models are superior to GLM under certain conditions.  We present a method using log transformation that accounts for any kind of heteroskedasticity in the estimation of health care cost Methods:  Assume there is a population represented by the random vector of explanatory variables (ex. patient and clinical characteristics) and with the scalar response variable (ex. health care costs) and we want to estimate unknown parameters.  Assume that error terms are in function of explanatory variables, and therefore heteroskedasticity exists. By modeling heteroskedasticity separately, we created a weight function and using this weight in an outcomes model, we corrected the heteroskedasticity in the log transformed model. Retransformation was done by adjusting for heteroskedasticity. Results: As a case study, we calculated the burden of illness of venous thromboembolism (VTE).   The difference between the cost of VTE and non-VTE patients is estimated to be $6,345 and $8,239 depending on whether the proposed or a GLM model is used. The standard errors changed significantly depending on the model. The difference was significant with the log transformed model with heteroskedasticity-adjusted standard errors and the GLM model. However, the difference was insignificant when the adjustment was not done. Conclusions: Log transformation provides more efficient estimators than GLM models under certain conditions (ex. if there is excess kurtosis) and heteroskedasticity can be adjusted even if its form is unknown.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2010-05, ISPOR 2010, Atlanta, GA, USA

Value in Health, Vol. 13, No. 3 (May 2010)

Code

PCV156

Topic

Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Modeling and simulation

Disease

Cardiovascular Disorders, Respiratory-Related Disorders

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