OBJECTIVES: International randomized, multicenter, double-blinded studies demonstrated that boceprevir, added to peginterferon alpha-2b and ribavirin significantly increased sustained virologic response rates over peginterferon/ribavirin alone in treatment-naïve (SPRINT-2) and treatment-experienced (RESPOND-2) adult patients with chronic hepatitis C virus genotype 1 infection. Our objective was to project the reduction in the lifetime incidence of liver-related morbidity and mortality associated with treatment with boceprevir/peginterferon/ribavirin vs. treatment with peginterferon/ribavirin vs. no treatment. METHODS: A multi-cohort Markov model was developed using German life tables and baseline patient demographics from the trials— mean age, gender, and fibrosis stage distribution. The first part of the model simulated three strategies—treatment with boceprevir/peginterferon/ribavirin (as defined by the European Medicines Agency), treatment with peginterferon/ribavirin, and no treatment. The second part of the model simulated the natural history of HCV. All hepatitis C-related state transition probabilities were obtained from previously published studies. Lifetime cumulative incidence of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver-transplant and liver-related death was estimated. The model was validated with previously published studies and probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed. RESULTS: Per 10,000 treatment-experienced patients, treatment with boceprevir/peginterferon/ribavirin vs. treatment with peginterferon/ribavirin vs. no treatment, respectively, were associated with substantial reductions in projected cases of decompensated cirrhosis (1082 vs. 2286 vs. 2845), hepatocellular carcinoma (719 vs. 1440 vs. 1787), liver-transplant (154 vs. 321 vs. 398), and liver-related death (1144 vs. 2360 vs. 2920). Likewise, substantially fewer cases of decompensated cirrhosis (1024 vs. 1835 vs. 2873), hepatocellular carcinoma (656 vs. 1161 vs. 1806), liver-transplant (146 vs. 257 vs. 402), and liver-related death (1073 vs. 1892 vs. 2954) were projected per 10,000 treatment-naïve patients. CONCLUSIONS: Boceprevir-based regimens are projected to substantially reduce the incidence of liver-related complications and mortality in previously untreated and treatment-experienced patients chronically infected with hepatitis C virus genotype 1 in Germany.