OBJECTIVES: The number of performed heart transplantations per year are well published and can easily be accessed. Nevertheless, there are no exact figures on the prevalence and incidence of patient survival after heart transplantation in Germany, although these patients have high healthcare needs. Purpose of this study was to generate these missing figures for the past and present as well as taking an outlook into the future development until 2030. METHODS: Primarily based on statistics from the Federal Statistical Office and liver transplant quality reports of the German AQUA-Institute, relevant parameters and data were identified and used to develop an epidemiological model. Key drivers of the model are yearly patient survival rates as well as growth rates of performed liver transplantations. The model starts in 1987 and is able to predict the future development of the cumulative liver transplant patient population until the year 2030. To account for uncertainty, a 1.000 replication Monte-Carlo-Simulation with random samples within published ranges of the input parameters was run. RESULTS: According to our model currently (2012) about 7.773 (95% Confidence interval: 7.701 – 7.844) patients with prior liver transplantation live in Germany. Until 2030 the model estimates an increase of the population size to 17.490 (95% CI: 17.105 – 17.875) people. The number of performed liver transplantations is estimated at 3.068 (95% CI: 2.988 – 3.148) in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: With current assumptions the liver transplant patient population size will continuously grow. The growth of this population will primarily be limited by available organs for transplantation.