CALCULATED FORECAST FOR TECHNICAL OBSOLESCENCE IN COMPUTERISED TOMOGRAPHY EQUIPMENT

Author(s)

Reyes-Santias F1, Vivas-Consuelo D2, Ramos M21Universidad de Vigo, Vigo, Spain, 2Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, Valencia, Spain

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the useful life of Computerised Tomography Equipment (CT) METHODS: A main components analysis in this methodology has allowed for a reduction in the number of variables on the survey-file in Computerised Tomography technology and facilitates subsequent work without a significant loss of information. The Log Binomial Regression Model has enabled probability calculations on answers (technology leap) to the different levels of stimuli (changes in variables, temporary development, detection system, imaging resolution and equipment power). Using a Discriminant analysis, the objective has been to estimate, based on time, the chances of a technological leap occurring.   RESULTS: The 18 evaluated technical parameters in Computerised Tomography  Technology have been grouped in three main components: Detection System which explains 72.4% of the variance; Imaging Resolution which explaining 13.55% of the variance and Equipment Power explaining 7.1% of the variance. Logistic regression allows us to approximate the influence of each main component with the passing of time, the implementation of a technology leap, with its significant influence with positive signs of temporary evolution (0.430), and with a negative sign for the main component the detection system(-3.974), image resolution (-3.766) and equipment power (-2.460). For Determinant analysis, the explanatory variables used in the model are the 3 components calculated. The prediction model obtains a lower percentage of success than the Log Binomial, around 66.7%. The most important factor in influencing the change of technology seems to be the image resolution followed by the detection system and a negative sing for temporary evolution. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the present project will enable advance knowledge of the expectations of technological change in CT technology, allowing an advance in investment planning for this technology, for acquiring and installing this type of technology.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2012-11, ISPOR Europe 2012, Berlin, Germany

Value in Health, Vol. 15, No. 7 (November 2012)

Code

PHP168

Topic

Health Technology Assessment

Topic Subcategory

Decision & Deliberative Processes

Disease

Multiple Diseases

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