INCREASING CHC TREATMENT RATE IN US IS A COST-SAVING STRATEGY
Author(s)
Huabin Zhang, MD, MPH, Director, Maneesha Mehra, MSc, Director, Julia Dibello, PhD, ManagerJohnson & Johnson Pharmaceutical Services LLC, Raritan, NJ, USA
OBJECTIVES The low treatment rate in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is partially due to suboptimal SVR achieved with the current pegylated-interferon/ribavirin (P/R) therapy. Here we applied a compartment model to assess the potential impacts of a higher CHC treatment rates in the US. METHODS This mathematical model was expressed by partial differential equations across population compartments based on injection-drug-use status, CHC status (infection, diagnosis, genotypes, treatment, and SVR), and disease-progression status. Model inputs were based on published sources. Model was calibrated from 2002-2006 and matched closely with CDC reports and other published literature. The model was applied to assess impacts of a higher CHC treatment rate from 2007-2040. Key assumptions included: only the current P/R treatment is available during 2007-2040; P/R durations consistent with current treatment guidelines by genotypes and costs $28,000/48-week. All costs were converted into 2007 dollars using 3% discount rate. RESULTS When P/R treatment rate increased from the current 6% to 30% across all patient groups between 2007-2040, a total of 431,000 more patients could be treated, leading to 236,716 more patients being cured, and resulting in 111,802 fewer CHC incidences, 110,543 fewer ALD incidences, and 160,679 fewer deaths. Cost increases with higher treatment rate strategy come from more treatments (+$12.4 billion) and managing more P/R treatment failure patients (+$9.4 billion). Cost savings mainly come from having fewer diagnosed but not treated CHC patients to manage (-$20.5 billion) and having fewer patients with advanced liver disease (ALD) to manage (-$6.1 billion). Overall direct medical cost savings are projected at $4.8 billion compared to the base scenario of 6% treatment rate. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing P/R treatment rate could result in more patients being cured earlier, preventing CHC and ALD incidences and saving lives. Our model projects increasing treatment rates could be a cost saving strategy.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2009-05, ISPOR 2009, Orlando, FL, USA
Value in Health, Vol. 12, No. 3 (May 2009)
Code
PIN54
Topic
Economic Evaluation, Health Service Delivery & Process of Care
Topic Subcategory
Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies, Health Care Research, Hospital and Clinical Practices
Disease
Infectious Disease (non-vaccine), Respiratory-Related Disorders