A REALISTIC-AGE-STRUCTURED, DETERMINISTIC, COMPARTMENTAL, TRANSMISSION MODEL TO ESTIMATE THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF VACCINATION AGAINST SEASONAL INFLUENZA
Author(s)
Wayne A Thompson, MSc, Senior Modelling Researcher1, Simon G Eggington, MSc, Health Economics Researcher1, Dan Tucker, MBBS, Senior Manager (global) - Health Economics (Influenza)21IMS Health, London, United Kingdom; 2 GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals, Wavre, Belgium
Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a national immunization program against seasonal influenza targeting children aged one to five years and adults aged 65+ years. Methods: Dynamic models simulate the indirect effect of vaccination conferred by herd protection, therefore, in order to estimate the population effect of vaccination against influenza, a transmission model comprising annual age classes was developed to model the effects of age-specific infection, morbidity, and mortality due to seasonal influenza. The structure of the model followed the susceptible-latent-infected/morbid-recovered schema for each age class. Transition between age classes was modelled by either jumps to the next age class between influenza seasons, or at a continuous rate. Assumptions concerning antigenic drift of the influenza strain were incorporated in the model as the waning of vaccine-acquired immunity between successive influenza seasons. Health benefits were estimated using person-years with influenza. Further developments are intended to extend the outcome measures to include Quality-Adjusted Life Years. Cost analysis was from a societal perspective in the UK, however extension to other settings can be performed. Results: Assuming 60% vaccination coverage of the target population in an influenza season, the ratio of person-years with influenza to the initial population size is 0.99% for no vaccination and 0.85% with vaccination. This indicates that in the UK, vaccination could prevent approximately 84,000 person-years of influenza, which corresponds to 2,184,000 influenza episodes per season, assuming infection lasts 2 weeks. The incremental cost per person-year with influenza, with vaccination versus no vaccination was £149. Conclusion: Initial results indicated that the national immunization program targeting children aged 1-5 years and 65+ adults could be highly cost effective.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2008-05, ISPOR 2008, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Value in Health, Vol. 11, No. 3 (May/June 2008)
Code
PIN28
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Cost-comparison, Effectiveness, Utility, Benefit Analysis
Disease
Infectious Disease (non-vaccine)