LAST OBSERVATION CARRIED FORWARD (LOCF) VS. MIXED-EFFECTS MODEL REPEATED MEASURES (MMRM)- EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF TWO APPROACHES TO ANALYZING LONGITUDINAL DATA WITH MISSING OBSERVATIONS

Author(s)

Jo H1, Gemmen E2, Bharmal M21Quintiles, Parsippany, NJ, USA, 2Quintiles, Rockville, MD, USA

OBJECTIVES: To compare two statistical approaches for analyzing longitudinal data with missing observations: 1)imputation using Last Observation Carried Forward method (LOCF) and 2)Mixed-effects Model Repeated Measures method (MMRM) to analyze the change from baseline in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) by medication adherence level.  METHODS: HRQoL via SF-12 Health Survey and medication adherence via a 5-level categorical response was measured monthly for one-year for 184 patients in a U.S. multiple sclerosis observational study. HRQoL was summarized in two continuous variables: Physical Component Score (PCS-12) and Mental Component Score (MCS-12). Categorically collected medication adherence was converted to numeric values and average compliance was calculated over a 1-year period then categorized into two groups:  ≥ 90% (GT90) or < 90% (LT90) compliant. For validity of compliance, patients who had completed at least 6 measurements during 1-year on compliance question were included. LOCF used the last available change from baseline to impute the missing values for early drop-out. MMRM is a likelihood-based approach which models all actual observations jointly, with no attempt at imputation for missing values. RESULTS: A total of 131 patients were included in this analysis. The 12-month change from baseline in PCS-12 comparing patients with GT90 compliance vs. LT90 compliance using MMRM was 0.86 (p=0.277) and using LOCF was 1.30 (p=0.339).  For MCS-12, the improvement among patients with GT90 compliance over LT90 compliance using MMRM was 2.04, while the corresponding improvement using LOCF was 1.97.  For MCS-12, only the MMRM method produced statistically significant improvements (p-values: LOCF=0.234, MMRM=0.026). CONCLUSIONS: MMRM and LOCF yielded not only different results but also different statistical significance in the 12-month change from baseline in MCS-12. Since the approach to estimate and model is different between two methods, the pattern and shape of data must be investigated to find the right method to produce valid estimates.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2010-11, ISPOR Europe 2010, Prague, Czech Republic

Value in Health, Vol. 13, No. 7 (November 2010)

Code

PMC24

Topic

Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Confounding, Selection Bias Correction, Causal Inference, Modeling and simulation

Disease

Multiple Diseases

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